Illustrative example, Fictional data, Not a client result
A decision map: should we lease a second plant?
A worked map of one hard decision: what is known and how, what is not, what could prove the plan wrong, and the next evidence to gather. The company and figures are invented; this is not a client’s map.
- Before
- Three confident opinions and a spreadsheet. Nobody can say which single fact would change their mind, and the lease cannot be undone once it is signed.
- After
- A one-page map: facts with sources and dates, each claim with how sure it is, two named gaps, a kill test for the forecast, and a reversible first move before the irreversible one, with the CEO named to sign.
Inspect the sample
01 Input
The CEO of Harrow & Finch Foods, a fictional 70-person food manufacturer, must decide within six weeks whether to sign a five-year lease on a second plant. The sales forecast says yes, the bank is cautious, and the operations lead thinks overtime could cover demand for another year.
How it moves
- Ask Answer the eight starting questions, from who decides and what they want to what is true now, the hard limits and what would show it worked.
- Map Write each fact with its source and date, each claim with how sure you are, and each gap that could change the decision.
- Challenge Try to break the picture: what else explains the growth in orders, and which result would prove the forecast wrong?
- Move Take the option the evidence supports, mark what cannot be undone, and name who signs it.
02 Output
| Item | Type | What we know, and how | What would change the call | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders grew for six quarters | Fact | Sales ledger, checked 2 Oct 2026 | Growth came from a single customer | Confirmed |
| Demand keeps growing for five years | Claim, fairly sure | Sales forecast; one customer drives a third of the growth | That customer does not renew | Kill test: renewal signed by 30 Nov |
| Overtime can cover next year’s demand | Claim, a guess | Operations lead’s estimate; no data yet | Overtime above 15% for two months | Gap: keep a six-week overtime log |
| The landlord will hold the site past December | Gap | Nobody has asked | The site goes to another tenant | Next question: ask the agent this week |
| First move: request a co-packing trial proposal | Option, reversible | Two co-packers have supplied indicative quotes | Trial terms cost more than the lease alternative | Gather terms; no trial or lease is approved |
03 Review
Where a person decides
The CEO must approve any binding trial or lease. The lease decision stays open while the landlord question and renewal check are unresolved. Gathering trial terms is the next step; it is not approval to sign.
Limits of this example
Fictional company, figures and dates. A map shows what is known and what is not; it does not make the decision for you, and it is not legal, financial or investment advice. The method’s public benchmark is unfinished, so no effectiveness claim is made here.
Map your own decision, free, at your own pace.